I need a thesis. “I sought a theme and sought for it in vain,” Yeats

But i still need a thesis. Drifting around looking at this and that. Discovered JCTCF, and gave it a quick look. Love reading about companies like that. A real company, with no debt, that probably has no real potential for growth. It’s because i don’t have a theme. With the market going down this fast I don’t have time to wander aimlessly wasting time looking at companies like that.

Seems like we’ve gotten to the point where, on an investment/retirement basis, not on a trading basis, you’ve got to start nibbling a little.Then i look at charts, what has the market given back, or what have the individual stocks i look at given back, less than a year in some cases SPOT. Really i could have bought it for a better price in 11/19. What it has given back was mostly a parabolic rise. It’s noty as though prices are all that great historically speaking, it’s just that the decline has been ferocious.

’29 to ’32   -86% ——–’73 to ’74   -48%——-’00 to ’02  -49%———’07 to ’09  -56%

Saw Trump’s new conference. He was the most logical and rational and coherent I have ever seen. What this may mean is that the tangled syntax is just an act, an incredibly effective act apparently, and terrifying if he has been able to get elected president by pretending to be some sort of verbally challenged hate monger. Doesn’t speak well for the electorate.

Back to seeking that theme. here’s my question. When Powell raised rates in ’18 it slammed the market. Fiscal stimulus is coming, once Trump figures out that he can borrow money for free and give it away (and, no doubt prioritize giving it to the hospitality business) he’ll give away as much as he can. When/if Biden gets elected he too will start the money gravy train. Sooner or later, and maybe it is starting already, this will have to push up interest rates. After its initial plunge the ten year yield has gone up, double its low now probably, what does that mean? Is it just a disorganized market or is some sort of debt beast finally feeling full?

So say that the market continues to sell off until values get irresistible, but then interest rates go up, does the market hate that so much everything stalls? Is that the time to buy commodity producers? growth returns, inflation returns, easy money fades, who benefits?

Damnit, back to a theme. Latest Grantham 7 year forecast has emerging value at 10% annual real return from here. Now that’s juicy. Always wonder what they mean by that. Is it emerging value if it is located in the emerging markets, has value characteristics and it trades on the NYSE, or is that international?