4/30/20

What is the result of all the money being thrown at people and companies? Leaving aside inflation, moral hazard, debt, competition, what’s really happening here? It seems to me that what is happening is that assets are going to change hands. Perfectly administered the money would, in theory, sustain the economy, like the story someone told me once about working on a second story construction site. Someone had stretched a tarp across the opening for the stairway and weighted this tarp with odd pieces of wood and five gallon pails of joint compound. This person assumed that there was flooring under the tarp and tried to walk across. As the tarp sunk under his foot he immediately realized his mistake, but he was nimble and the tarp was weighted sufficiently to allow him to make it across the opening, albeit barely. Best case scenario this money being thrown at the economy would be like the tarp and we would reach the other side frightened but essentially OK. Nothing the Trump administration has done gives me any hope that they can pull this off. Instead we arelikely to end of crashing into the stairwell and having lots of pieces of wood and five gallon pails land on top of us. The whole will be lower, but some will be on top of others, that’s what i mean about assets changing hands. What’s really going to happen is thatsome people or businesses are going to end up with things and rights, and other people and business are going to have them taken away. The process is not going to be orderly, nor is it going to be based on any sort of competence or capitalistic survival through competition, but a chaotic reordering.

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