5/16/21

Let me see if i understand all the parts.

The Fed has to keep going with QE/money printing whatever you want to call it because reversing course would be catastrophic for every financial market and the whole economy. But these actions have terribly distorted asset prices. The pandemic cratered the economy and then the government rescued the economy with direct fiscal stimulus to people and businesses which proved more effective than anyone imagined. But the now the labor market is terribly distorted. People’s thinking has changed over the past year and a half. No one wants to work for wages that won’t cover rent or a mortgage. No one wants to commute to an office when they feel they can be as productive working from home. Everyone likes getting checks in the mail, especially if they don’t involve work and pay better. Everyone now understands that the government is as capable of borrowing money to send to citizens/voters from a bad economy as it is capable of borrowing money to save bankers and big businesses from bad decisions. The supply chain is much more intricate, fragile and “just in time” than anyone imagined. Any kind of normalization of asset prices relative to cash flows or US labor prices relative to whatever global average globalization has been driving toward, will be an immediate disaster. So we’re just going to ride this train and lay down tracks in front of ourselves until what?

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